Dave Tuley, senior reporter at VSiN.com, is in his fourth season with The Post’s Bettor’s Guide. His handicapping pieces appear in VSiN’s online magazine, Point Spread Weekly.
Tennessee Titans (+7.5) over LOS ANGELES RAMS:
The advance line was just Rams -4 last week before both teams won on Sunday. It then was reopened at Rams -6.5. I was a little surprised at that adjustment, but then it was announced Tennessee RB Derrick Henry had suffered a potentially season-ending foot injury. The line then jumped the key number of 7 to Rams -7.5.
Oddsmakers and the public overreact to quarterback injuries and adjust the lines too much. Here, they’re doing it for a running back. I’m a Henry fan, but we see top running teams in college and pro football plug in backups all the time and the backups do just as well. I don’t expect Jeremy McNichols or Adrian Peterson to put up the same numbers as Henry, but I don’t think the drop-off will be as much as most people expect. I’ll gladly take the hook at 7.5 just in case the Rams do win by a touchdown, but I think this line should be closer to 3 or 4, with the game coming down to a field goal one way or the other.
Denver Broncos (+10) over DALLAS COWBOYS
Watching Vic Fangio and the Broncos try to give away their 17-10 win versus Washington last week, it’s hard to back Denver, but I still can’t resist them as double-digit underdogs in this spot. The advance line for this game was just Cowboys -7.5 a week ago, but then the Cowboys upset the Vikings (and a lot of bettors) 20-16 on Sunday night with Cooper Rush replacing Dak Prescott.
That’s going to attract a lot of bandwagon jumpers and make them an even more public team than they already are, especially with Prescott expected to return. However, the Broncos’ defense (even without the departed Von Miller) can contain Dallas’ offense and keep it close for Teddy Bridgewater to do what he does best — cover as an underdog.
Last week: 1-1. Patriots (W), Lions (L).